I am trying to come up with asset allocation and investment strategies that will hold value or increase given concurrent depletion of natural resources (peak oil, water shortages, topsoil degradation). There are definitely some good ways to hedge against "peak everything," and I will outline the strategies I have come up with below. Any additional ideas, comments, concerns, would be greatly appreciated (especially investment ideas).


• Focus on principal of supply and demand:
o Demand for natural resources is increasing
o Supply of key resources will soon begin to decrease
• This, invest in key resources
• Key resources are likely to rise in value even if peak resource extraction does not occur. Commodities tend to hold their value against inflation

• What to Invest in:
o Land (specifically, fertile Land)
• This is not necessarily advocating becoming a farmer
• Owning nutrient rich land is a good way to hedge against declining topsoil and arable land
• Land should be conveniently located (cheap fuel is a prerequisite to cheap transit)
• Higher costs of transportation will cause convenient locations to be more valuable
• Land-tied securities
• Stock in companies that own fertile land, and aren’t depleting its nutrient content such as CRESY
• Energy
• Land with uranium, oil, gas, coal, other mineral rights
o Commodities themselves
• Can own commodities on paper (avoid physical storage issues, duh, such as CBOT, NYMEX, etc.)
• Energies (commodities)
• Buy oil and gas futures contracts – for as late a date in future as possible (oil currently trades up through Dec, 2017)
• Food (commodities, watch out for subsidized crops)
• Many factors will lead to increased food prices
• Rising prices of energy, depletion of topsoil, increasing population
o Can purchase futures contracts for various foods
• Corn (maybe risky because of dependence on subsidies)
• Soy (also dependent upon subsidies).
• Wheat, oats, cocoa, oranges, coffee, sugar
• Cattle, hogs, pork bellies, dairy, whey could be exceptionally good as meats will become incredibly expensive, and alternative protein will be more sought after. Meats are also horrible for the environment

• International Portfolio
o United States, high consumption also means highest dependence on consumption
o Less developed markets likely to hold value or increase, but there is less downside risk (not as far to fall)

o What to invest in to gain access to foreign markets:
• Securities in foreign/developing markets
• Land/properties in foreign countries
• Fertile and convenient land in foreign countries
• Foreign currencies
• Have foreign bank accounts, financially savvy and safe
• Learn to speak other languages – consider this an investment
• Spanish, Chinese, French, Arabic
• Renewable/sustainable businesses
o Renewable energy companies
• Wind, hydro, solar (maybe, depends on certain metals such as gallium to produce panels), geothermal

• What not to invest in:
o Do not invest in “liabilities," also, do not take on non self-liquidating debt
• Anything that will not provide a future benefit
• Material possessions with short lifespan
• Only buy durable goods that can be repaired as opposed to replaced
o Items dependent on supply of any resource that will be depleted
• Cars that depend on inexpensive fuel are a BAD investment
• Leisure vehicles such as ATVs, powerboats, dirt bikes, RVs, skidoos,
• Motorcycles could be good investment as they consume much less fuel per mile than other vehicles, but not recreational motorcycles
• Houses that are located far from work/groceries/fertile land/water source are poor investments (most suburban homes)
• Stocks of transportation companies/companies reliant on cheap resources
• Importers/exporters, companies with foreign manufacturers, shipbuilders, aircraft manufacturers, automakers, airlines, transportation infrastructure companies (although some rail companies could profit)


This is just a rough sketch of ideas. There is a lot of room for more creativity in terms of investment strategy.

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